Mid Year Review – 2026

The first half of 2026 was shaped by conflict in the Middle East, concerns over energy security and an uncertain global backdrop. Despite this, most major financial markets have generated positive returns. Another important theme has been a broadening of market leadership beyond the largest US technology companies, as investors increasingly sought opportunities across a wider range of sectors and regions. The defining events of the first half of 2026 may long be remembered for escalating tensions, and ultimately outright conflict, in the Middle East. In February, ostensibly (or not) to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the US and Israel launched widespread strikes against Iranian infrastructure. This led to retaliatory strikes from Iran across the Gulf region and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major trade artery. Predictably, energy prices, in both their liquid and gaseous forms, surged, stock markets stumbled, and the inflationary ghosts of 2022 appeared to be stirring once again.

Then came the climbdown and a shaky peace agreement, or in diplomatic parlance, a “managed ceasefire”; managed, apparently, in the sense that it manages to be interrupted by regular bouts of
hostility. Nevertheless, energy prices collapsed, as markets were keen to price out the conflict and price peace in. Some may be wondering what this was all for, whether President Trump overreached or if it was really about something else entirely. Regardless, whether this was a distraction from domestic issues, which would seem somewhat short-sighted given that ordinary Americans tend to object to paying more at the pump, or a message to the US’s geopolitical foes, a lasting deal needs to be reached for everyone’s sake. In stock markets, one of the most notable themes of the year thus far has been a broadening of leadership away from a narrow band of giant companies. In the US, the aptly named Magnificent Seven (Microsoft, Amazon, Apple etc.) have long been powering the market upwards, but this year these gunslingers have mostly found themselves back in the saloon as investors have gravitated towards other areas. One reason for this has been the eye-watering sums these companies are spending on artificial intelligence (AI), which has raised the odd eyebrow. However, this spending spree has proved something of a bounty for those further down the chain, namely the chipmakers, data centres and other beneficiaries of the AI ecosystem. This trend has extended beyond the US and helped drive strong market gains in Asia, especially the hardware powerhouses of South Korea and Taiwan; more on all of this below. Despite the odd unwelcome geopolitical surprise, largely caused (again) by the US’s head honcho, most markets are in positive territory this year, suggesting that it is often best to screen out the noise when it comes to investing.

Bottom Line
As if we needed another reminder following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in today’s world energy security and supply chains remain at the mercy of geopolitical shocks. This could accelerate the development of alternative trade corridors and energy routes, alongside increased strategic stockpiling by governments.

Q&A – What’s on your mind?

What has fixed income (bonds) done in 2026?
Bond markets have delivered positive returns this year, with most areas of the fixed income market outperforming cash. After a difficult start to the year for bonds that are more sensitive to interest rate movements, many recovered strongly, while areas such as corporate, emerging market and high yield bonds delivered particularly strong returns. While cash has continued to provide positive returns, most bond sectors have delivered more, reinforcing the benefits of remaining invested rather than holding excess cash as interest rates gradually fall from recent highs. The stronger returns from higher-yielding areas of the bond market have been supported by improving investor confidence and a more supportive market environment. Traditionally lower-risk government bonds delivered more modest gains but also recovered from a challenging start to the year. With bond yields remaining at relatively attractive levels and interest rates gradually easing, a diversified allocation to bonds continues to offer investors both income potential and diversification benefits.

What have stock markets (equities) done in 2026?
Despite the uncertainty created by the conflict in the Middle East, global stock markets have enjoyed a strong start to 2026. Emerging markets have been the standout performers, helped by robust earnings growth from companies involved in AI and semiconductor production. Japanese shares have also delivered impressive returns, supported by a weaker currency, strong AI-related earnings, ongoing corporate reforms and an improving domestic economy. Other developed markets have also produced positive returns, with gains generally ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. Smaller companies have also performed well, although returns have varied by region. US and Japanese smaller companies have significantly outperformed those in the UK and Europe, benefiting from improving economic conditions and attractive valuations. China has been the notable exception, with markets declining this year as concerns over economic growth and weak consumer demand continue to weigh on confidence. Overall, global stock markets have delivered a resilient first half of the year, with strong company earnings, improving economic conditions and continued enthusiasm for AI helping to support returns.

What have real assets done in 2026?
Real assets have generally performed well this year, with commodities, infrastructure and property all performing well over the past six months. Unsurprisingly, oil has been one of the strongest performers as conflict in the Middle East disrupted supply and heightened concerns over energy security. Starting the year at around $60 a barrel, oil rose above $110 in April before falling back to around $70, highlighting just how quickly markets can react to geopolitical events. Gold, by contrast, has had a more mixed year. Higher bond yields and stronger returns from other areas of the market have reduced some of its appeal, although recent events have served as a reminder of gold’s traditional role as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty. Infrastructure has also benefited from several long-term trends. The rapid expansion of data centres, alongside a renewed focus on energy security, has highlighted the need for significant investment in electricity networks and energy production. As a result, clean energy companies have delivered strong returns. The property sector has also remained resilient despite higher interest rates, with data centres continuing to be one of the standout areas of the market.